June 13, 2022

<aside> 📝 This is part of my 30-post speed writing goal I’m calling my Dry Run. Judge me not for my quality, but that I wrote this at all. More here: Writing: A “Dry Run”

</aside>

https://embed.notionlytics.com/wt/ZXlKd1lXZGxTV1FpT2lKaU5HRmpabVl3TlRVNE1HUTBObVV5WVdNMVl6TXdOVE0zT1dJeFlqUmpPU0lzSW5kdmNtdHpjR0ZqWlZSeVlXTnJaWEpKWkNJNkluTTBNR1I0WVc1cmRVeDJOR3BtTXpjMVMwUlFJbjA9

I’m a big hockey fan—go Avs. The Stanley Cup Final starts in a couple of days, and it’s on my mind. I’m also exhausted after a week of travel but want to write a post, so let’s keep this lighthearted with a debate I already have in my head or with my brothers: which current NHLers are going to make the Hockey Hall of Fame?

List of members of the Hockey Hall of Fame - Wikipedia

It’s hard to identify in the moment which players truly deserve it, but you have to remember that there are spots available. It’s a guarantee that dozens of these players will make the Hall—but how many?

The Hockey Hall of Fame is for all of hockey, so it also includes players that never appeared in the NHL. By my count, it has inducted 63 players known for primarily NHL contributions since 2000, or 3 per year.

If 3 NHLers make the HHOF in a typical year, then on average 3 future HHOF inductees enter the league. These players have long and storied careers—let’s estimate 15 years on average? Back of the envelope, there are 45-50 HHOF players in the NHL at any given point.

Of course, a lot of those players are young. It’s impossible to predict which rookies will be worthy of Hall consideration in 15 years. Sure, we already know Connor McDavid will make it, but there isn’t much to debate around most guys in their 20s: the answer is simply “let’s wait and find out”.

But presumably about half of our HOOF players are older, and they’re going to be a lot easier to identify. Let’s focus on those.

Rough guess: there are 25 players age 30 or older who will make the hall. Let’s run through the options.

The No-Debate Tier (11 players)

These players are getting in, and I don’t think you can make an argument they won’t.

Forwards